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Wagering On NFL Playoff Lines
How NFL Playoff Lines Are Determined
The next time you get yourself wondering why NFL playoff lines are constantly changing, remember that the betting public has a direct impact on how the lines move, not the oddsmakers.
Many gamblers do not have a good understanding of how lines are actually determined. Many people are convinced that there is a machine or some bookie in a smoke filled room determining the NFL playoff lines.
This is far from the truth. NFL playoff lines are originally set by many factors. Oddsmakers will take into account things such as a teams record, quarterbacks, injuries, offensive production, defensive production, the success or lack of success the coaches have against each other, home-field advantage, the history the two teams have playing each other, the scenario of one team needing a game desperately compared to the other team not having as much interest, and the list goes on for an eternity. It is true that oddsmakers put out the original NFL playoff lives but how the lines move is not determined by them.
NFL playoff lines are directly affected by the betting public. The betting public places wagers on NFL playoff lines and depending on how heavily the money goes on one team will directly affect how NFL playoff lines move. For example, if the New Orleans Saints are playing the St. Louis Rams and the New Orleans Saints open as a seven point favorite, this means the New Orleans Saints must win by at least eight points to cover the spread and for the gambler to win his wager the Saints must win by eight, if the New Orleans Saints win by seven it is considered a “push” and the bettor does not win or lose. This also means that the St. Louis Rams can lose by six points and the bettor who places a wager on the St. Louis Rams to cover the spread will win. If the St. Louis Rams lose by eight points then they would lose their wager but if the Rams lose by seven points it will be a push.
Using this example, if the general public placed wagers heavily on the St. Louis Rams then you will immediately see the point bread drop. The Rams might have opened up as a seven point underdog but within hours you can see the spread drop to possibly six, five, or even lower. The oddsmakers have nothing to do with the NFL playoff lines moving because it is directly affected by the betting public. The same scenario rings true in every aspect of wagering on any NFL playoff lines. If you prefer to wager on the over and under then the same situation can occur or even wagering on a halftime spread.
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